Is the conflict in Ukraine, about to take the first step to a world war?
That’s how Ukrainian President Zelensky has characterized any involvement of North Korean troops on Russia’s side in the Ukraine war. And this week brought more evidence that such involvement is coming.White House spokesman John Kirby said around 3,000 North Korean soldiers have traveled to Russia this month for training and possible combat. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called the development “very, very serious.”
Up until now, the only foreign soldiers involved in the war have been individual volunteers and military advisers and (on Ukraine’s side) small numbers of special forces whose exact locations and military roles remain obscure. The overt deployment of a large contingent of foreign troops would represent a new kind of foreign involvement and a significant expansion of the war.
A big question—if you’re wondering whether “world war” is too strong a term for what could unfold—is whether this expansion could lead to reciprocal expansion on the Ukrainian side. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a Putin ally, dismissed claims of imminent North Korean involvement but also said that any such foreign involvement on Russia’s side “would be a step towards the escalation of the conflict” because Ukraine’s allies would invoke it as a reason to deploy NATO troops in Ukraine.
Indeed, longstanding advocates of increased western support for Ukraine are already invoking the North Korea prospect as cause to revisit the idea, floated by French President Emmanuel Macron in February, that Europe should send troops to Ukraine. We might have to get back to ‘boots on the ground’ and other ideas proposed by Macron, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister said.For now, this proposal would face formidable opposition within NATO. Last week, during President Biden’s visit to Berlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters, “We are making sure that NATO does not become a party to the war, so that this war does not turn into a much greater catastrophe.” Still, the prospect of North Korean troops joining the battle ratchets up the pressure on people like Scholz and Biden. This week House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner, a longstanding Ukraine hawk, said the US should “seriously consider taking direct military action against the North Korean troops” if they enter Ukraine. Of course, if such military action also took out Russian troops, the US would find itself in direct conflict with two nuclear powers.
Meanwhile, South Korea is worried about what weaponry or other assistance Russia might give North Korea in exchange for military manpower—all the more so in light of the mutual defense pact signed by Putin and Kim Jong Un this summer. Seoul has responded to Pyongyang’s dispatching troops to Russia by offering intelligence and other aid to Ukraine via NATO. John Everard, former British ambassador to North Korea, told the New Statesman, “If North Korean troops fight for Russia, then tensions in two areas—the Korean Peninsula and Ukraine—will have welded together. This would greatly complicate the global situation and, because of the international alliance system, would increase the risk of other states being dragged into conflict.”
As for how long that list of states might get: Financial Times foreign affairs columnist Gideon Rachman, in a piece that wasn’t about the North Korea development or even the Ukraine War in particular, recently wrote about the “disquieting possibility… that various regional conflicts could become increasingly entangled. They already touch each other at various points. Russia and China have conducted joint air patrols near Alaska and the Sea of Japan. Iran has supplied weapons to Russia. If Israel attacks Iran, Russia might return the favor or seek to profit in other ways. With the western alliance distracted by conflicts elsewhere, China might see a chance to up the pressure in Asia.”
The good news, for those who hope NATO will avoid direct involvement in the Ukraine war, is that Ukraine suspects the initial deployment of North Korean troops will be not in Ukraine but in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine staged an incursion and continues to occupy land. It would make sense for Putin to use them there, thus ensuring the frustration of Zelensky’s hope that the Kursk incursion would take a bigger toll on Russian troops than on Ukrainian troops. And so long as the North Koreans stay on the Russian side of the border, it will be harder to argue that NATO should respond in kind.
On the other hand, depending on the performance of the troops, Putin may be tempted to deploy them more widely. North Korea is reportedly sending special forces from the country’s XI Corps, a relatively well-trained, 200,000-strong group of soldiers.
“If North Korea’s mass army has quality units, these are it” writes Keith Johnson of Foreign Policy.
Yours,
Dr Churchill