Sustainability is a loaded word.
Surely, it is sustainability that connects Environmental Responsibility with the Future of Humanity. It means both flexibility & adaptation of our Human Civilization in ways that and underscore our present tense survival, with our major long term goals.
Yet sustainability, always rides alongside our normative propensities, our commonly shared societal values, and even our basic needs that allow us to have a measure of social stability, and vice versa.
Long term thinking is crucial here, because when we exclusively focus on short-term returns, we miss the opportunity to create stability and prosperity for the future.
But where’s the Second Supersonic Age We Were Promised?
Tell me please, because although the return of supersonic travel is being touted by aviation giants and startups alike — it is pretty slow going, when your goal is breaking the sound barrier and you work in the SuperSonic industry.
Quesst, a NASA mission exploring the future of supersonic passenger flight through its experimental X-59 aircraft has not yet taken to the skies but it looks fearsome in AI renderings, whereas Boom’s “Rent-A-Plane” demo, looks downright pathetic…
Lockheed Martin and NASA unveiled the X-59 earlier this year.
In May, they conducted a flight readiness review, a necessary step towards official approval. Its debut flight is expected later this year.
These two engineering giants are hardly alone.
A new age of supersonic travel is taking shape throughout the industry, with startups also getting in on the action. In March, Boom Supersonic, based out of Colorado, completed the first test flight of its XB-1, a demonstrator aircraft, for the future of the first independently developed supersonic jet.
Major airlines like American and United have already placed orders for the aircraft, named Overture, that they hope will eventually materialize around 1931. Meanwhile, Spike Aerospace, based near Boston, is developing a supersonic business jet, with similar time frame for delivery.
Of course all of these are invested heavily, because there is plenty of evidence that investing in a sustainable future, does not have to come at a loss.
Yet, seeing that today’s exodus from ESG funds is happening while the United Kingdom’s overall economy grew only by 0.1% in 2023 — while its net-zero economy grew by 9% in the same time frame, makes us all wonder which way its up…
Similar things happen in the old US of A…
The transportation sector, EV automobiles, large vehicles, ferry-boats, ships, and even the aviation industry, can demonstrate why long-term investments in electrification battery technologies supporting decarbonization are vital, as are all the SAF aV-Gas projects.
But we stick with the Sustainable Future because decarbonization will allow us to preserve the positive benefits of aviation for future generations, as well as promote SuperSonic Aviation and protect the integral role it plays in facilitating global trade, diplomacy, and economic development.
The investments we make today are therefore key to allowing us to seize growth opportunities, mitigate upcoming risks and lay a stable foundation for the resilience of our business in the face of climate change.
The importance of investing in new energy ecosystems, is a great point and place to begin the discussion, for the future Fuel of our business, and I always look forward towards discerning the future. It is a unique atmosphere filled with the spirit of collaboration, where we are surrounded by others who understand the variety of challenges facing our industry and are committed to finding solutions to meet them head on.
One of the main challenges, that concerns sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), as the most promising energy solution we have to decarbonize our industry, is that despite the differences in their maturity levels – aircrafts are already capable of flying with up to 50% SAF blends. Yet, all SAF technologies need massive and continued investment in the development of their respective global ecosystems, if we want them to contribute significantly to our industry’s decarbonization goals as planned.
Given the current impatient culture of on-demand, instant access, now-now-nowness, the case for getting people to distant places quickly, or getting cargo to far-off places faster, might seem an obviously necessary one. That is why the Concorde is sorely missed by anyone who had experienced when it was flying high. Anyone who is an Executive worth her salt knows that some parts of our business are very time-sensitive, and often times business meetings have to be in-person, and therefore time wasted is lost business, lost profits, lost deals and above all else, lost business efficiency.
Some business travelers will be happy to pay extra for the Concorde SuperSonic flight class, just because of all the traveling they have to do. Yet, for the general tourist traveling public, maybe the supersonic flight would be very worth it, if you save a day getting to your vacation, or if you escape jet lag.
Excitement at the idea of flying from LAX to Tokyo in four hours, or anywhere around the globe in roughly half the time or even a third of what it takes now, sounds a little fresh, strange, and like “Dejavu” considering that this is not a new idea at all.
Concorde, the elegant supersonic airliner which marks the 55th anniversary of its maiden flight this year, flew between New York and London or Paris in around three hours. At least it did for 30 years, carrying over 2 Million passengers in its XL Delta wings.
It was indeed an amazing aircraft, that got ahead of what we could do with supersonic flight, as it performed reasonably well, and in a practical manner, and since then other pressures and challenges on commercial supersonic flight have increased.
Concorde put on a good show and run the marathon, that we are now called to finish with a new sustainable SuperSonic CONCORDE.
SAF alone (from biofuels to e-fuels) should account for over half of the emission reductions needed to get the aviation industry to its net-zero by 2050 ambition. We expect hydrogen-powered aircraft to initially play a smaller, albeit essential, role in supporting that ambition. These reductions will be further reinforced by fleet renewal, new aircraft technologies and air traffic management improvements. Investing in developing the SAF ecosystem is thus not a choice, but a necessary commitment to secure the future of the aviation industry and ensure that General Aviation, Common Flight, as well as SuperSonic Flight, all remain accessible for all.
After all, AVIATION is a giant ecosystem at will.
And the challenge of expanding these ecosystems is a great example of why thinking sustainably can only be long term, since the timeline for creating a global network of fuel production facilities, distribution grids and infrastructure for a burgeoning energy source SAF-Avgaz, is measured in decades, not months. Thus, in order to reach our targets for 2035 and 2050, we have to establish a series of intermediate goals for SAF energy sources to keep us on track.
However, we cannot meet these goals alone, and that is why we seek a collaborative approach to reaching net-zero aviation by 2050…
Collaboration is the name of the game, and at Concorde, we strive to play a key role in the development of the SAF ecosystems. We are working with governments, engine manufacturers, farmers, airports, airlines, start-ups, energy companies, research institutes and other key players around the world to create new SAF production projects and expand our Airport network of SAF-AvGas fueling stations.
Despite the growth potential for SAF and hydrogen, many investors are waiting on the sidelines, hesitant to commit at such an early stage, with little to no risk protection. We are committed to serving as a catalyst to grow these industries and send the message that not only are these investments necessary, there is a market for them as well.
Sonic Boom
The sonic boom problem has been a major stumbling block for the return of commercial supersonic travel.
It’s not going to cause earthquakes or disrupt the flight of other aircraft, but it really is a very loud and disruptive sound, and I think people were once willing to accept the impact of technology that didn’t positively affect their own lives, but I think attitudes have since changed. Look at the way attitudes to the takeoff and landing noise at airports have changed.
He cites an experiment 60 years ago when the U.S. government bombarded Oklahoma City with eight sonic booms a day, every day, for six months. The residents were expected to be open-minded about the booms — an aeronautical center was a major local employer, and there was Tinker Air Force Base nearby. But the experiment was cut short in the wake of complaints about broken windows. That said, three-quarters of survey respondents reckoned they could live with the booms indefinitely. The quarter who couldn’t were enough to see the proposed supersonic Boeing 2707 project canceled.
We’ve seen every other technology go forward, get better and more incredible, and yet aviation has been stuck in the same place for over 60 years now…
Yet while the essential physics of what’s called “low boom” have been understood for half a century — flying at supersonic speeds while producing a quieter sonic boom; it’s believed that eradicating the noise altogether may be impossible — finding and then testing a solution has proved exceedingly difficult.
That’s until a more recent development: not necessarily of new materials, though they’re part of the design updates, but accessible supercomputing. That’s allowed for much faster design iterations, so we can now do in months, what previously may have taken years. It’s also allowed startups to participate in a field that would, not long ago, have been the exclusive realm of government agencies.
In other words, the low-boom solution is all done through the shaping of the aircraft, which is similar across all of the aircraft now being developed. Sharp angles, specific tail surface arrangements, engines placed far back along a long, narrow fuselage and an extra long nose. This encourages air pressure to build up and dissipate as a series of evenly spaced pulses — or mini booms — rather than collectively as one big bang.
That’s one reason why Spike is aiming at a business-size jet, as the proportions are more amenable to this distinctive shape. There would still be a sound to be heard at ground level, but a sound that is more akin to a car door being slammed, as heard from 50 feet away.
The boom is not the only stumbling block as supersonic travel looks to make a comeback. Aviation regulators need to be won around — and in light of recent mishaps for Boeing, which had its own Sonic Cruiser project in the early 2000s, they’re understandably on edge. The expectation is that the legislation prohibiting sonic booms over land will be revised towards the end of this decade.
As supersonic aircraft burn more fuel, there’s also the environmental impact, marginal perhaps with only a few planes flying, but not so minimal should supersonic flight really take off (and with air travel expected to account for 12% of global emissions soon enough as it is). Coen says there’s no reason why they can’t run on the SAFs, or sustainable aviation fuels, that are now being developed, with careful evaluation of the best way to fly (routing, altitude, etc.) also mitigating impact.
But it’s incumbent on us to make sure everything is in place.
People tend to think of Concorde as the epitome of un-sustainability, but half a century on, we can do things now they couldn’t then do. We can make supersonic passenger flight more sustainable than the subsonic passenger aircraft we are flying today, because we’ve had the opportunity to build a new aircraft from the ground up.
the need to counter the gut feeling many have that supersonic flight is just for the elite. As he points out, this was previously the case with cell phones. It was the wealthy’s early uptake of the cell phone that, over time, allowed costs to be driven down such that the technology became available to everyone. And there’s an even more apt comparison in his mind.
“Commercial jet travel was very expensive in the 1950s and became cheaper and more accessible over time [too],” he says, “and the same will happen for supersonic flight.”
The new era of supersonic travel is not “just for billionaires”, but initially, it is a replacement for the Business Class and the First-Class cabin on normal airliners, with 60 to 90 passengers flying “supersonic class.” They get to save time while airlines get to differentiate themselves from the competition, while being able to carry more people on sub-sonic flights.
After all, the current commercial model is dominated by the idea of moving as many people as efficiently, and cheaply, as possible around the world. That explains the advent of money-printing super-sized aircraft like the Airbus A380. Future airliner development by the major manufacturers, is likely to be limited to improving efficiency, and thus profits for the airlines.
Again, that leaves it down to the small, fledgling supersonic industry to push commercial flight into the SuperSonic future, because as we’ve seen every other technology go forward, get better, and more incredible — aviation has been stuck in the same place for 60 years.
To make that technological leap, there’s one more wrench in the works. While new supersonic designs are promising when it comes to addressing the boom problem, that’s just a first step. After that comes the necessary development of the right engines, specifically smaller-diameter turbojets, turbofans, and scram & ram jets. The technology already exists, but is the cost that is the issue. Engines take a huge amount of investment and years of work, and what we’re talking about developing here is really not easy.
That’s why we take a measure of skepticism towards the notion that a supersonic passenger aircraft will come about through the efforts of any one startup alone. Obviously, it’s just hard to see any one startup being able to get the right level of investment. Engine development alone is something that will require national investment.
Aerion, another fledgling company that was working on a small supersonic business jet, folded back in 2021 precisely because of lack of funds; this was despite having $11 billion in pre-orders from the likes of NetJets as well as investment from Boeing.
While we all see the reintroduction of supersonic passenger flight as a small stepping stone on the road to more ambitious travel goals — space planes, for example, and the ability to fly anywhere on the planet in 90 minutes — Supersonic commercial flight is where it’s at.
A lot of people are already talking about supersonic flight, but it’s an enormous step to get there and would require billions of dollars of investment — we have to take all this one step at a time.
It’s an evolution.
Given the engineering and regulatory hurdles yet to cross, Airline Execs don’t expect supersonic commercial aircraft to be in operation much before the late 2030s.
But, they say, it is definitely coming.
And probably the Concorde again will be the one to bring it too.
Yours,
Dr Churchill
PS:
As an eternal optimist, I have my eyes on the horizon bracing for the looming storms…
Yet, I know that the decarbonization our industry needs is possible, but surely, it will not happen overnight.
Nor will it happen without a sustained commitment on our part to ascertain that all the key players have a seat at the table.
Especially the StartUppers who have not been beaten down with the sense of defeat that all Aerospace Executives have through 60 years of going backwards each and every day.
Please keep in mind that the Wright brothers didn’t have a Pilot’s license…
