The year of the Dragon is behind us, but ask anyone in Tokyo, Seoul, or Taipei, and they will surely tell you in hushed tones that China’s “rising” is truly terrifying to them.
Because as China feels its rising economic power by becoming the number One Economy in the World — it also finds it necessary to flex its muscles, its rhetoric, and its Taiwan, South China Sea, and Sea of Japan, influence, through its Military might.
Yet, as a “Rising Power” always does, so does China flexing its muscle publicly and in a grand manner, so that it matches its obvious growth towards the pole position in the Global Economic Dominance competition.
Naturally this means that China chooses to undergo vast all-forces combined military exercises, all around the region, and especially Taiwan, as a show of unquestionable force that scares friend & foe alike.
Yet, the most alarming aspect of :China Rising” is its huge & rapidly expanding nuclear weapons’ buildup, alongside a huge naval & air-force increase, by placing additional atomic weapons at the disposal of it’s frontline forces, in secret ICBM silos, in portable ICBMs, in vessels, aircraft, and submarines & rockets that could be delivered to various targets all around the World, as well as major Cities, and other Countries’ military forces and leadership — located anywhere, on sea, land, & air.
Yet, regarding how Beijing makes decisions related to the use of nuclear weapons, as planned, is a heavily guarded state Military & Diplomatic strategy secret — and thus as far as martial tactics in advance, or before of, or even in the event of a Thermo-Nuclear war, or as a deterrent for such an all out catastrophic & extinction causing conflict — we are totally in the dark…
But let us take a stab in the dark in order to try to decipher the cypher that China’s nuclear martial forces’ array is concerned, because indeed, no classic martial regimented formula can explain with certainty all aspects of China’s decision-making related to nuclear weapons — so we must remain focused on reading the tea leaves, of our white “Puer” Yunnan tea-flower leaf…
A strange proposition at best and a befuddling proposal at reading the “writing on the wall.”
Nevertheless, by looking through the lens of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, the three countries that know China best — we can understand the motivations and outcomes that China seeks to gain against those same type of interests of the United States or ASEAN — and thus we can get a better understanding of all the major diplomatic, military, and civilian factors, at play.
Therefore and in order to begin — let us set the stage herewith:
The nuclear weapons arsenal of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has grown rapidly in size and sophistication in recent years. The US Department of Defense estimates that the country has 600 warheads in its inventory as of 2024, and those numbers are projected to increase to 1,000 by 2030 and continue growing well into the 2030s. In addition, Beijing is improving its triad of nuclear delivery systems comprising various types of missiles, submarines, and bomber aircraft. It has constructed hundreds of new missile silos, has tested new types of delivery systems, and is moving some forces to a launch-on-warning posture.
China’s nuclear buildup has led U.S. policymakers in the executive and legislative branches to question what the trend says about Beijing’s decision-making related to nuclear weapons. This offers a frame-work for wanton analysis in order to attempt to answer those questions in a brisk and accessible way. It presents all categories of factors that shape China’s nuclear decision-making, such as the strong leadership, the increasingly invulnerable weapons systems, and its military organizations, juxtaposed with official policies, domestic, and international norms, and the as of now, long held Communist and Civilian Market Economy as blended & centrally planned politico-economic doctrines.
And thus, we can now conclude for all of us, that any recommendations for anyone, let alone US leaders, military generals, impartial policymakers, and bureaucratic leaders in the executive and legislative branches — could well be worthless at this time — since nobody really listens inside the Washington DC eco-chamber from anyone outside of this largely criminally inane beltway.
Yet — we must soldier on.
Because…
Beijing’s nuclear buildup appears likely to continue, and US – China relations will remain entrenched in intense competition that could easily trigger Third World War with a ThermoNuclear front in every home across the globe — for the foreseeable future.
As it turns out, leaders play the central role in making decisions on nuclear policy and strategy. And while China’s leadership has always kept tight control of nuclear weapons, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping’s near total centralization of power around himself makes him especially decisive. Xi’s beliefs in three main areas likely factor into his decision-making: the prestige, the relevance, and the efficacy of nuclear weapons.
President Xi clearly sees a larger and more sophisticated nuclear arsenal as part of his ambition to achieve the military aspects of China’s “great rejuvenation,” which includes transforming the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a “world-class military” by 2029. Indications of the priority President Xi places on nuclear weapons, started to emerge early in his tenure. In December 2012, shortly after rising to power as China’s top leader, President Xi gave a speech to the PLA Second Artillery Forces, the organization that controls most of China’s nuclear weapons, and that in 2016 was upgraded to a military service and renamed the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF). In the speech, Xi called for “building a powerful information & data led adaptive strategic missile force.”
President Xi has continued to emphasize the importance of enhancing his country’s nuclear arsenal in major speeches and policy documents throughout his tenure, most recently in the work report from the Communist Party’s Third Plenum in July 2024, where President Xi has also articulated wide-ranging ambitions for China to become a major power that is at a minimum, second only to, and possibly on par with the United States.
In that context, President Xi probably sees the PRC’s historically minimal nuclear arsenal as simply inconsistent with Beijing’s desire to be a great power and the staggering progression of China’s capabilities in nearly every other military metric, to say nothing of nonmilitary tools of statecraft.
President Xi’s goal, however, is not just power & prestige for its own sake. He also seeks what some Chinese commentators call a “strategic counterbalance” that compels the United States to limit or even abandon attempts to oppose Beijing’s rise.
On the roles of weapons systems and military organizations, China’s nuclear arsenal, including its force structure, the number and types of weapons in the country’s arsenal, and force posture, the way those weapons are arrayed and their readiness for use — shapes decision-making. For at least half a century after its first nuclear test in 1964, Beijing’s relatively limited arsenal led Chinese leaders, as a matter of policy, to confine their nuclear options to threatening a retaliatory second strike. As China’s nuclear arsenal grows over time, though, the country’s leaders will have new options at their disposal. New nuclear weapons do not automatically create or change any leader’s intentions, but they can enable intentions that already exist or shift intentions over time.
China’s leaders might become even more ambitious as new capabilities reach key technical thresholds that make PRC policymakers more confident that their nuclear arsenal can not only serve as a credible sec- ond-strike deterrent but also take on additional roles such as offsetting conventional military imbalances. For example, the PLA Navy (PLAN) started patrolling with nuclear missiles on submarines around 2015, which solidified the sea-based leg of its nuclear triad. China’s leaders ultimately evaluate the strength of their arsenal on a relative rather than absolute basis, because they compare China’s nuclear forces to those of the United States and not those of any other potential adversaries…
Please let that sink in for a moment, and ponder the consequences.
As of September 2023, Washington possessed 3,748 warheads, approximately 1,770 of which were deployed while the remainder were held in reserve. Beijing thus argues that its upgrades are simply bolstering its second-strike capability, in the face of rival countries’ technological advancements.
Second strike…
Got that ?
Another factor in this, is China’s military organizations, and their perceived closed mindedness…
Over time, more and more of the front line military services in China have acquired some of the distributed parts of the country’s nuclear weapons and they have incorporated theatre nukes in their basic mission.
This policy has created far more bureaucratic stakeholders in nuclear affairs, as is compared to an earlier era, when the funding for nuclear capabilities came at the expense of improving conventional forces.
The PLAN and PLA Air Force (PLAAF) now have stronger incentives to make the case in favor of their nuclear mission, especially their roles in it, rather than argue against the usage of nuclear weapons and their overall daily operational utility.
Perhaps, the real reason behind President Xi ZiPing’s goal, is not just China’s growth & prestige for its own sake, but the pragmatic reality that he seeks, what some Chinese commentators call a “strategic counterbalance,” that compels the United States to limit, or even abandon it’s “Dr Strangelove” ambitions, and the incurable romanticisms about “winnable Nuclear War” through Major Geopolitical & Geographically mandated; Nuclear Martial plans.
Because today, even the furtive and ultimately futile attempts to oppose Beijing’s rise, as it pertains to Economic and Military Supremacy, the Taiwan dilemma, the South China Sea, the Japan sea, and even the Belt & Road initiative, or the World Hegemony project – can only be adequately adjudicated through the lens of Thucydides trap.
And because China’s Military services, shape nuclear decision-making through both joint organizations such as the Central Military Commission’s Joint Staff Department, and all the individual service organizations, such as the PLARF Staff Department, and the myriad others — it is important to note that these bodies translate broad guidance from the leadership into specific operational and tactical plans that ultimately decide the outcome of wars. During peace time, and in operational preparedness, and in the Military Theory teachings for the leading Generals — these plans align with the Politburo’s leadership commands, as the ultimate Leader’s intent, but in war time, in battle practice, and in on-the-ground reality, these plans, diverge widely…
Such divergence could be useful & purposeful, only when the “Martial Services” use their specialized knowledge of the Nuclear weapons, to intentionally finesse, distort, or focus their tactical plans, or alternatively, change their operational plans to reflect realities on the ground that might depart from leadership guidance, unintentionally, especially, if the implementers do not follow directions, and engage in arrogance of Command, or insubordination, or simply they do not know, understand, or even acknowledge that they have the nuclear capabilities that fit their pre-ordained mission.
Still, today & overall — China’s Military leadership, perceives that the Red Dragon for now, has the upper hand militarily, and here are some instances of nuclear power exhibition of that thinking, under President XI JIN PING:
1) September 2015—China displayed several types of nuclear missiles during its parade marking the 70th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II..
2) October 2019—During a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, China showcased its new DF-41 ICBM publicly for the first time.
3) August 2021—China tested a nuclear-capable fractional orbital bombardment system with a hypersonic glide vehicle.
4) August 2022—Videos of the People’s Liberation Army moving nuclear capable missiles appeared on Chinese social media prior to large scale exercises that followed then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
5) September 2024—China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) over the Pacific for the first time since the 1980s.
But there is a shadow side to all this…
You want dominance ?
Be Careful what you wish for…
But perhaps History can offer us a guide for today — because just by reading the ancient book “History of the Peloponnesian War” by Athenian General, Thucydides, we become somehow smarter than all those around us…
Written four hundred years before the birth of Christ, this detailed contemporary account of the long life-and-death struggle between Athens and Sparta stands an excellent chance of fulfilling its author’s ambitious claim. Thucydides himself (c.460-400 BC) was an Athenian and achieved the rank of general in the earlier stages of the war. He applied thereafter a passion for accuracy and a contempt for myth and romance in compiling this factual record of a disastrous conflict.
Thucydides (460 BC – 400 BC) (Greek: Θουκυδίδης) was an Athenian soldier, historian and army general of the hoplites. His History of the Peloponnesian War recounts the fifth-century BC war between Sparta and Athens until the year 411 BC. Thucydides has been dubbed the father of “scientific history” by those who accept his claims to have applied strict standards of impartiality and evidence-gathering and analysis of cause and effect, without reference to intervention by the gods, as outlined in his introduction to his work.
He also has been called the father of the school of political realism, which views the political behavior of individuals and the subsequent outcomes of relations between states as ultimately mediated by, and constructed upon, fear and self-interest. His text is still studied at universities and military colleges worldwide. The Melian dialogue is regarded as a seminal text of international relations theory, while his version of Pericles’ Funeral Oration is widely studied by political theorists, historians, and students of the classics.
More generally, Thucydides developed an understanding of human nature to explain behavior in such crises as plagues, massacres, and wars.
But let us also examine the influence of the man who led Athens during the pivotal times of the Peloponnesian War, Pericles of Athens. Pericles was born in Athens, Greece, circa 495 BC and died on 429 BC. Pericles led, advanced democracy in Athens, and ordered the construction of the greatest building ever conceived and built — the still standing, Parthenon. And thus Athens, achieved the height of its cultural and imperial power in the fifth century BC during the time of Pericles.
Thucydides writes, that Pericles — the prominent statesman, orator, and leading general, started, maintained and always influenced, the start of the Golden Age of the city, specifically during the time between the Persian and the Peloponnesian wars. Coming from the powerful and historically influential Alcmaeonid family of his Athenian mother, he descended upon the scene of politically divided Athens as a Uniter, a Populist, and a Doer, that recognized no obstacle in his meteoric rise to power.
Thucydides, his contemporary Soldier, General & Historian, acclaimed Pericles, with such a fervor due to his profound influence on society, that he christened him as “the first Citizen” of the Athenian Democracy.
Indeed, it was Pericles who turned the Delian league (imagine NATO & ASEAN) into an empire, with his countrymen and their armed forces, along with the most powerful Athenian Navy, as the guarantors of Peace & Stability, during the Golden Age of Athens, including the first few years of the Peloponnesian war. From roughly 461 BC, the period that is sometimes known as “Age of Pericles” or the “Golden Age of Athens” inter-exchangeably, and that which ended around 429 BC. Yet according to many — this Golden Age of Athens & Pericles was the special time period, that could include times as early as the Persian wars, or as late as the next century, based on the various interpretations of conflicting Historians of that era and more recently, because even today there is modern bibliography written about those distant events and times of Genuinely Great Leadership…
As a leader, Pericles promoted Culture, the Arts and more famously, Literature, Theater, & Music, and for this chief reason Athens still holds the reputation of the educational and cultural center of the ancient Greek world. He started an ambitious & monumental in scope, building project, that included most of the surviving structures on the Acropolis – most notably the Parthenon. This project uplifted & beautified the city, exhibited its glory, and gave plentiful well paying jobs and meaningful work to the people. Furthermore, Pericles fostered his “Athenian Good Works” to such an extent, that critics called him a strong populist leader… For his great love — he chose Aspasia of Miletus, whose wisdom, wit, and beauty, as well as her performance as a Greek “hetaera” (Geisha) was unparalleled…
Aspasia (Greek: [Aspasíaː]; c. 470 – after 428 BC) was a female permanent resident in Classical Athens. Born in Miletus, she moved to Athens and began a relationship with the statesman Pericles, with whom she had a son named Pericles the Younger. According to the traditional historical narrative, she worked as a courtesan and was tried for “asebeia” (impiety), though modern scholars have questioned the factual basis for either of these claims, which both derive from ancient comedy. Though Aspasia is one of the best-attested women from the Greco-Roman world, and the most important woman in the history of fifth-century Athens, almost nothing is certain about her life.
Aspasia was portrayed in some politically motivated Anti-Pericles comedies as a Concubine, and yet in all ancient philosophy tracts she was shown to advantage as a Great Teacher, Philosopher, and Rhetorician. She has continued to be a subject of authorship, as well as of visual and literary artistic representations up until the present times. From the twentieth century, onwards — she has been portrayed as a most knowledgable leading feminist and as a female Companion to a leading Man, as well as a sexualized, and sexually liberated woman, and a feminist role model fighting for women’s rights in ancient Athens.
Aspasia actually opened an academy for women that became “a popular salon for the most influential men of the day”, including Socrates, Plato, and Pericles, and yet the accusations in ancient comedy, that she was a brothel-keeper derived from this. Despite these challenges to the traditional narrative, many hyped the anti-Pericles narrative, claiming that Aspasia worked as a courtesan or even a madam. Whether or not Aspasia worked as a courtesan, her later life, in which she apparently achieved some degree of power, reputation, and independence, has similarities to the lives of other prominent “hetairai”(“courtesans”) such as Phryne.
In Athens, Aspasia met and began a relationship with the statesman Pericles. It is uncertain how they met — yet she may have met him through his connection to Alcibiades’ grandfather’s household. More modern historians speculate that when Cleinias, the son of the elder Alcibiades, died at the Battle of Coronea, Pericles may have become the “kurios” (guardian) of Aspasia. Aspasia’s relationship with Pericles began some time between 452 and 441. The exact nature of Pericles and Aspasia’s relationship is disputed. Ancient authors variously portrayed her as a prostitute, his concubine, or his wife. Modern scholars are also divided, with most arguing that they were married, thus describing Aspasia as “the de facto wife of Pericles.” Many believe, that Pericles’ “Citizenship law” of 451 BC, made marriage between an Athenian, and a “metic”(immigrant) illegal, and suggests a quasi-marital “pallakida” (“concubine”) status, enforced by marital contract, was engaged into, by the two consenting adult parties, [Pericles & Aspasia] and that is why Aspasia is described as “hetaira” (Concubine) and the mistress of Pericles.
Yet, it made no difference to Pericles who loved lovely Aspasia with an untold vengeance…
Maybe the characterization is similar to today’s Xi-ZiPing’s Chinese Opera signer-wife, a hugely influential, philosophically gifted and highly intelligent supporter of the Arts and Culture of China, and of all Health Care for the underprivileged and the poor, starting with the victims of Hiv-Aids and Tuberculosis the nemesis of China’s marginalized population… Indeed a modern day, Philosopher, philanthropist, and leading light of Civilization. Well Done…
Yet going back in the ancient times of the glory of Athens — Aspasia and Pericles had a son, “Pericles the Younger” born around 440 BC. At the time of Pericles junior’s birth, Pericles already had two “legitimate” sons, Paralus and Xanthippus. In 430 BC, after the death of his two elder sons in battle, Pericles proposed an amendment to his citizenship law of 451 BC, which would have made the Junior Pericles, able to become a citizen and inherit. Though many scholars believe that this was specifically for Pericles, some have suggested that a more general exception was introduced, in response to the effect of the Plague of Athens and the Peloponnesian War, on citizen families.
According to Plutarch, political jealousies, corruption, and intrigue, caused Aspasia to be prosecuted for “asebeia” (impiety) by the comic poet Hermippus — who wanted to get back at Pericles for some perceived & illusory “wrong.” She was defended in court by Pericles, and his great Art of Rhetoric caused the Court to acquit her and find her innocent of all charges. This was recorded at the time of Pericles, and this historical tradition is also recorded in a play by Hermippus himself, the “Trial of Aspasia.”
Some scholars compare the trial of Aspasia, to that of Phidias and Anaxagoras, both also connected to Pericles, and concludes that the trials for impiety involving those close to Pericles, are attested as weaponized judicial actions against the Great Leader, with certainty.
In 429 BC, Pericles died…
Still for us, living today and hoping to continue breathing above this Earth’s crust — this historical narrative means that those ancient historical realities, explain that trying to understand what is driving China’s nuclear decision-making, is paramount for our defense, and it will only become more important over time, for the neighboring countries who feel the shadow of China’s forbidden city’s dwellers, far more at present, and increasingly in the future, than at any time ever before.
And increasingly, for America and the rest of the World — including You, no matter how rich you are, where you live, or where you hope to escape to, in the antipodes of this Earth – the inescapable conclusion is an extinction event will not leave you unscathed.
And that is a heavy price for all of Humanity to have to pay.
A price destined for all of us to pay, and especially those who live so close to the Red Dragon, and so far from God…
Yours,
Dr Churchill
PS:
The US secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth cancelled his planned visit to Tokyo, and instead visited Iwo-Jima, in an effort to speak about countering China’s “rise” and that non-too-subtle public statement, was received by Beijing as a naked threat of aggression, causing a chain reaction of events that culminate this week, with China’s joint forces unleashing the largest ever Military Exercises around Taiwan.
Seems that the “Butterfly Effect” is actively seeking to destabilize the whole of the sensitive Pacific region.
Similarly Japan, South Korea, & China, are all coalescing together in convening their diplomats to sue for Peace — sensing the clouds of war that are seen gathering above all of their respecting Cities, Capitals, and Peoples…
The only thing I have to say is this:
“May God have Mercy on us, and deliver us from Evil…”